In the latest twist of the 2024 presidential race, former President Donald Trump has edged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a key election forecast by political analyst Nate Silver. Trump, who had been trailing in the polls after Harris saw a post-Democratic National Convention boost, is now projected as the slight favorite to win the Electoral College—a significant milestone as the election season heats up.
Silver's model, which tracks various factors including polling data and historical voting trends, currently gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris at 48%. This marks the first time Trump has been favored since early August, as Harris’ post-convention momentum begins to cool.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
TRUMP NOW LEADS THE POLLS BY
7% OVER HARRIS IN ODDS TO WIN
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— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) September 5, 2024
One major factor behind Trump’s rise in the forecast is Pennsylvania, a critical swing state where recent polling shows Trump ahead by a small margin. Several polls released in late August show him leading Harris by one or two points.
Despite Harris’ gains in national polls, the electoral map presents a more challenging scenario for her campaign. The model suggests that Harris could win the popular vote while losing the Electoral College, echoing the 2016 election. Silver's analysis highlights that Harris has around a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but failing to secure enough electoral votes to claim the presidency.
BREAKING: In a must watch moment on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Mike Barnicle calls Trump a “damaged, delusional, old man” and SLAMS the media for making absurd false equivalencies between Trump & Harris.
This needed to be said. RT so all Americans see this.pic.twitter.com/8AVv5EKQIm
— Trump L’s (@Trump_Losses) September 4, 2024
This electoral-popular vote gap has been a concern for Democrats, and it remains a potential obstacle as the election nears.
The Harris campaign’s struggles are not confined to Pennsylvania. Although Harris continues to perform well in states like Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, Silver's model shows Trump gaining traction in other battleground states, including Georgia and North Carolina.
As the race tightens, the Trump campaign is focusing on these key states, hoping to replicate his 2016 success by flipping enough Electoral College votes to secure a victory.
The fluctuating forecasts underscore the volatility of the 2024 election. While Trump has solidified his lead for the moment, Silver cautions against reading too much into slight polling differences, noting that a 52-48 split is still within the margin of error. "It's not a big difference," Silver wrote, emphasizing that the race remains competitive.
